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| China's population has recorded a decline for the first time in 60 years |
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*The Pilgrim, January 27, 2023
I’m
rather shocked, than impressed, by the stance taken in Western media reports on
the shrinking population in China.
According
to the United Nations (UN), Chinese population has registered a decline for the
first time in 60 years. Demographers predict that China's population will
shrink by 109 million by 2050.
Going
forward, India will hold the title of world’s most populous country, as total
Chinese population is expected to drop from 1.426 billion to below 800 million
by 2100.
Well,
you probably know how the story goes: the Western media, especially in the
United States, have risen up in arms with headlines that portend global
disaster for the rest of the world just because the Chinese are having fewer
children. Throwing pragmatism to the wind, the media have chosen to be naïve.
Without
mentioning names, I can sample a few headlines to give you a rough idea of how Western
journalism is characterizing the demographic situation in China: “China’s population
is shrinking. The impact will be felt around the world”; “China's Population
Falls, Heralding a Demographic Crisis”; “Is China’s high-growth era over –
forever?”; “How China's population decline could alter the global economy”.
The
stance taken by media reports in the West is clear, predictable, and
understandable: population decline in China will have severe economic ramifications
and the rest of the world should therefore be worried.
Of
course, no one can dispute the fact that population growth increases
government’s revenue base, since more people means more taxes. It has many
other benefits for international relations. But what worries me about the news
stories on the subject is that they deliberately reek of superficial analysis
that shies away from truly portraying global population decline also as a
personal matter rather than just a collective one.
You
see, a microlevel analysis provides the best insights into why the Chinese
population is falling, and what could be done to change the situation.
You
don’t really have to be an expert to know what is going on in China. Like me, all
you need is to have a Chinese friend who can clearly explain to you why they
seem to have joined the childfree or antinatalism movement.
Of
Chinese descent, my roommate in America points out that he has agreed not to
bear any children with his Chinese girlfriend because raising kids is such a
costly enterprise.
I
seem to agree with the couple because by virtue of being a child myself, I’m
something of an expert on the issue of child-rearing and, by extension,
population growth.
You
see, while people might want to have children, they don’t want to do so under
duress.
Before
they can have a family, most individuals today want to be sure that they can be
the best possible parents, and that their society can guarantee opportunities
and a happy existence for their children. But this increasingly seems to be a
fairytale in many countries, including China.
Based
in Beijing, the YuWa Population Research Institute has already deduced that
China itself is among the most expensive places to raise a child, even more
expensive than the United States and Japan.
In
2019 alone, to raise a child to the age of 18 in China, on average one needed $76,629.
It’s practically impossible for any incentive to offset this cost. In Zambia,
think about how many houses you can buy in that amount of money.
To
reduce families’ education costs, the Chinese government itself cracked down on
the private tutoring industry.
In
this type of situation, the last thing a person wants to do is to have a child,
especially that this is one of the most important decisions any individual
would have to make in their lives.
With
economic development as arguably the most important challenge of our time, amid
deepening economic inequality, it may not be surprising that more and more
people—not just in China—are narrowing down their choices and choosing to lead
childfree lives.
But
it’s not always about the money. China, itself notorious for antinatal policy,
doesn’t seem like a place where one would expect population growth.
The
country may have a new three-child policy, but what do they say? Bad habits die
hard.
As
a philosophical issue, antinatalism becomes ingrained with time—until an
individual starts viewing child-rearing as an immoral act that serves to
perpetuate human suffering.
On
a more personal level, therefore, there is nothing really remarkable about
having children if they have to be subjected to a hardscrabble existence.
The
parents may have the mettle to endure tough economic conditions, but there is
absolutely no guarantee that innocent children would be willing to do so.
No
human being, in China or anywhere in the world, wants to live with the guilt of
having perpetuated human suffering as a result of trying to fulfil a social
expectation.
If
China wants to boost its population growth, the country should reduce the cost
of living and further introduce major policy shifts to facilitate this goal.
But
let’s settle it: next time, the Western media and their bourgeois writers
shouldn’t pretend not to see the personal aspects of population growth, which
they want to desperately romanticize as the gem in the crown of China and the
larger domain of globalization.
*This column is published every Friday in Zambia's leading newspaper, the Zambia Daily Mail
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